Written by Clay Smith
Spoon Feed
This calculator from Penn Medicine can help local hospitals plan for COVID-19 surges.
Why does this matter?
As COVID-19 unfolds, there are aspects which are hard to predict. When will we face an initial, second, or third surge? It is one thing to predict what will happen with broader populations, such as the IMHE model. What about at a local hospital level?
It’s CHIME time
The University of Pennsylvania developed the CHIME – COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model. This helped them predict when hospital capacity would likely be exceeded, the intensity of the surge, and need for ICU beds and ventilators. This calculator can be used by any hospital system. However, I entered variables for my local health system (census estimate below), and it seemed to over-call the severity. We estimate a max census of 50 patients, not 800. Clearly, I entered something wrong.
I’m curious what your local hospital is using and how accurate it has been thus far. Please leave a public comment on this post so we can all help each other.
Source
Locally Informed Simulation to Predict Hospital Capacity Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Ann Intern Med. 2020 Apr 7. doi: 10.7326/M20-1260. [Epub ahead of print]
Open in Read by QxMD
Possibly check against other calculators.
Covid Resource calculators
The COVID-19 Acute and Intensive Care Resource Tool (CAIC-RT) is open access. Requires more data possibly more accurate. Includes age distribution, age-stratified probability of resource use, and proportion of critical care patients requiring ventilation.
https://caic-rt.shinyapps.io/CAIC-RT/
From: Annals of Internal Medicine https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764818/estimating-maximum-capacity-covid-19-cases-manageable-per-day-given
The Stanford Model
https://surf.stanford.edu/covid-19-tools/covid-19/
The Rush Model
http://covid19forecast.rush.edu/
Many thanks. These are fantastic resources. The Rush model even calculates PPE needs.